Thoughts on Leopold Aschenbrenner's “situational awareness”

Why I don't expect an intelligence explosion this decade—or maybe ever.

Last month, Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike left OpenAI within days of one another. The two were co-leads of OpenAI’s superalignment team, which got disbanded shortly afterwards. Their departure brought renewed attention to an April report that Leopold Aschenbrenner, a member of the superalignment team, had been fired for allegedly leaking information.

Then…