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Sam Penrose's avatar

Really valuable history, thanks so much.

Regarding the "lesson to draw", I think you have laid it out beautifully. All that remains is to give it its name: **combination**. Per Brian Arthur[1] (and Christopher Alexander, and ...), a new technology is a new combination of existing technologies (which are, recursively, once-new combinations of even older technologies).

As you explain here, it took decades for the separate components to be individually assembled—only then could the final combination take place and produce the enormous leap in usefulness.

Corollary: the conventional wisdom was *right*. The components of AlexNet and its descendants *didn't* work. It was only the emergent combination that did.

[1] https://sites.santafe.edu/~wbarthur/thenatureoftechnology.htm

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Rafe Brena, PhD's avatar

Great piece Timothy! I can say deep learning boom caught ME by surprise...

You see, I spent my 30+ years in AI working in areas related to symbolic AI, like knowledge representation, automated reasoning, intelligent agents, etc. I never thought that those "subsymbolic" (notice the contempt) neural networks were capable of anything beyond character recognition.

And here we are today, discussing when the new AI systems will get to the AGI level (not in this decade, I'd say).

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