If I'm understanding the study correctly, I'm pretty sure that ChatGPT use is still growing, but the rate of growth appears to have slowed. I'm not quite sure whether this is a big deal -- download growth also appeared to fall last December to January -- but it is a useful piece of context for sure.
It is great to see such carefully prepared work, rather than hype people vs skeptics making narrow arguments.
All of this still hinges on AI being able to improve and deliver as fast as many companies hope. I think some disappointment and some losers are quite likely, especially among weaker players and the ones who overextend themselves. Even OpenAI may not be immune, given just how much they raise the stakes.
Great visuals. It makes all of these complex trends easy to see.
The first chart is confusing me, though. Is it saying that Meta is spending $400 billion in capex this year? Or is that the cumulative capex of all of the companies?
The chart is showing the cumulative capex. So Amazon + Microsoft + Google + Oracle + Meta spent at a $400 billion annualized rate in Q2 (97 billion for the quarter). But Meta is only the bit between the Meta line and the Oracle line.
This is a very annoying quibble on my part, but the header "money burning machine" under #13 is a bit ruthless. If you extended the chart one additional year to the right, into 2031, the title would have to be changed to "money printing machine" for the chart to make sense.
I certainly don't disagree with your primary point which is that OAI's operating losses to breakeven are large and (for now) unfunded.
Thanks for explaining this so well, it feels like this AI boom has more energy then my most intense Pilates class! Do you see this capex trend continuing indefinitely?
ChatGPT use is reported to have peaked https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/chatgpt-peaked-data
If I'm understanding the study correctly, I'm pretty sure that ChatGPT use is still growing, but the rate of growth appears to have slowed. I'm not quite sure whether this is a big deal -- download growth also appeared to fall last December to January -- but it is a useful piece of context for sure.
(https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/17/chatgpts-mobile-app-is-seeing-slowing-download-growth-and-daily-use-analysis-shows/#:~:text=To%20be%20clear%2C%20this%20is%20a%20look%20at%20download%20growth%2C%20not%20total%20downloads%2E)
It is great to see such carefully prepared work, rather than hype people vs skeptics making narrow arguments.
All of this still hinges on AI being able to improve and deliver as fast as many companies hope. I think some disappointment and some losers are quite likely, especially among weaker players and the ones who overextend themselves. Even OpenAI may not be immune, given just how much they raise the stakes.
Great visuals. It makes all of these complex trends easy to see.
The first chart is confusing me, though. Is it saying that Meta is spending $400 billion in capex this year? Or is that the cumulative capex of all of the companies?
The chart is showing the cumulative capex. So Amazon + Microsoft + Google + Oracle + Meta spent at a $400 billion annualized rate in Q2 (97 billion for the quarter). But Meta is only the bit between the Meta line and the Oracle line.
Chart for #11 has incorrect sequencing of months. Another case of using AI without adequate supervision?
Haha good catch. That was entirely human error. We will fix it.
This is a very annoying quibble on my part, but the header "money burning machine" under #13 is a bit ruthless. If you extended the chart one additional year to the right, into 2031, the title would have to be changed to "money printing machine" for the chart to make sense.
I certainly don't disagree with your primary point which is that OAI's operating losses to breakeven are large and (for now) unfunded.
Thanks for explaining this so well, it feels like this AI boom has more energy then my most intense Pilates class! Do you see this capex trend continuing indefinitely?