I find this fundamentally pessimistic. I would wage that within 20 years AI will solve 80%+ of these issues and will be the dominant form of reading imagery.
>Human radiologists spend a minority of their time on diagnostics and the majority on other activities, like talking to patients and fellow clinicians.
This really depends on the radiologist. The 2012 study mentioned was only looking at staff radiologists at hospitals. However, I'm not sure this is representative of the majority of radiologists; many nowadays work fully remotely, reviewing images with essentially zero patient interaction and limited interaction with other clinicians.
I do strongly believe that Jevons paradox should inform our expectations when it comes to the impact of AI on the labor market, but I'm not convinced it's useful for explaining this specific situation. The regulatory and reimbursement hurdles discussed seem much more influential, and we should expect professionals lacking these moats (such as software developers) to be impacted differently.
I expect a couple of words need to be added here: "But demand for human labor is higher than ever [so far]." And here will be the reason: "average income . . . over 48 percent higher than the average salary in 2015."
I find this fundamentally pessimistic. I would wage that within 20 years AI will solve 80%+ of these issues and will be the dominant form of reading imagery.
>Human radiologists spend a minority of their time on diagnostics and the majority on other activities, like talking to patients and fellow clinicians.
This really depends on the radiologist. The 2012 study mentioned was only looking at staff radiologists at hospitals. However, I'm not sure this is representative of the majority of radiologists; many nowadays work fully remotely, reviewing images with essentially zero patient interaction and limited interaction with other clinicians.
I do strongly believe that Jevons paradox should inform our expectations when it comes to the impact of AI on the labor market, but I'm not convinced it's useful for explaining this specific situation. The regulatory and reimbursement hurdles discussed seem much more influential, and we should expect professionals lacking these moats (such as software developers) to be impacted differently.
I expect a couple of words need to be added here: "But demand for human labor is higher than ever [so far]." And here will be the reason: "average income . . . over 48 percent higher than the average salary in 2015."